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Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Crisis ahead for European mobile operators: data growth dangerously slow

Crisis ahead for European mobile operators: data growth dangerously slow, and network costs unhealthily low - Insight - News | Analysys Mason Group: "our views are no longer controversial:

  1. Demand is not a force of nature, and open-loop forecasts are, literally, fantastical.
  2. Growth is constrained by the capital intensity required to deliver it.
  3. MNOs can, if they choose to do so, very effectively pull pricing levers to control traffic.
  4. New users will dilute any growth in average usage per device.
  5. There were already signs two years ago that the shifting balance between smartphone and mobile broadband would result in lower growth of mobile data traffic. Growth in Western Europe was 61% in 2011, and every sign indicates it will be far lower in 2012.
  6. Demand for mobile broadband is cyclical, a way of quickly monetising excess capacity, but as networks fill up operators will ideally wish to swap mobile broadband traffic out for higher-value, lower-volume handset traffic.
  7. It is easier for operators to create an artificial spectrum crisis by exaggerating demand than to improve the utilisation of what spectrum they have.
And last, but by no means least: Wi-Fi is the default network for most smartphone and tablet traffic" 'via Blog this'

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