2010 will be the 'Year That Three Strikes Strikes Back' - not that it will be properly implemented anywhere in Europe except France, but the copyright lobby and their captured governments will make serious efforts to force it onto domestic legislative agendas across Europe. That will lead to a consumer backlash led by the surging Pirate Party in the European Parliament and domestically, who will no doubt rouse the European Commission to try to explain exactly what the last-minute Telecoms Package compromise on Three Strikes actually means, particularly in the context of the newly incorporated Charter of Fundamental Rights. Expect the British government to obfuscate on its response, especially as it must pass the Digital Economy Bill before the May 2010 election. That will lead to a proper debate in 2010 about net neutrality, both in Brussels, Washington and eventually even the UK (hopefully reading my new book 'Net Neutrality' available free online now!).
The new Tory government will then have to prove that it has some principles by cancelling ID cards and talking tough on personal liberty, ISP liability, state surveillance and digital privacy - how soon it does so will be a key test of their currently half-baked IT policy. Will its pre-election promises result in them reaching for the Sky? 2010 will see further international developments on social network and search co-regulation and net neutrality, led by the resurgent consumer champion Commissioner Reding and the quite radical Obama administration (as I predicted last year). Expect several inevitable changes at the top of Ofcom and the BBC, and growing business as well as consumer pressure on Ofcom to 'do something' about our failing broadband competitiveness. Every corporate wage-slave will hate both our grindingly slow recovery from recession (slowest in the G20) and being dragged kicking and screaming to migrate from XP to 'NOT my idea' Windows 7.
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